Beautiful Visualizations Slain by Ugly Facts: Redesigning the National Hurricane Center's 'Cone of Uncertainty' Map

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Abstract

The Track Forecast Cone, commonly known as the “cone of uncertainty”, is the most popular hurricane and tropical storm forecast product that the National Hurricane Center produces. However, it is often misinterpreted by non-experts. In this study we first explored the most common misconceptions about the cone and produced two alternative redesigns that we expected to be more attractive to and easier to understand by non-expert readers. Our results were mixed, but reveal promising paths for future efforts.